Polling number boon for Obama: Obama competitive in MS, expands lead in NJ, other news!

More great news on the polling front--it appears our 50 state strategy is working. A new poll out today from Rasmussen Reports details this strikingly--for the first time in a long time, we will have a Presidential canidate who is competititve in the Deep South. We've heard about Georgia already, but now Mississippi is well within range for Senator Obama, with news out from the first post-primary poll of the state:

(after the flap)

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/mississippi/election_2008_ mississippi_presidential_election

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state since Hillary Clinton's exit from the race finds McCain leading Obama 50% to 44%.

Need more good news? Remember how John McCain was focusing on turning New Jersey red? Don't think so Johnny...

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/helpobama/

As Republican Sen. John McCain opens his New Jersey campaign headquarters, the latest results from Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll show him trailing Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee by double digits, 49%-33%. The poll also reveals the extent to which McCain's association with the Bush administration and the war in Iraq hurts his campaign.

Obviously these are good results out of New Jersey, where Obama was looking a touch shaky earlier, and McCain was targeting to to turn red. It gives us one less state where we have to play defense, while it appears that McCain will continue to play defense in deep Red states (well, formerly), like MS, GA, Alaska(as well saw earlier this week), and has some catching up to do in Colorado:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?Rele aseID=1188

Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters

And Minnesota has now moved to "Safe Obama" as of yesterday:

Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents

While the evidence of a "unity bounce" has not been that obvious nationally; it is very obvious in state level polls. We already have our strongholds established nationwide; and not too many Blue states to play defense in...but John McCain is falling behind rapidly, and faces a fundraising disadvantage against Senator Obama.

It's obvious that our time is now. Let's continue to seize it like we have been doing, and continue to pave the way for Senator Obama.



Display:


Don't tip me... (2.00 / 11)

Tip those fine people in the above states who are ready for responsible leadership in the White House.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 06:34:01 PM EST

Re: Don't tip me... (2.00 / 2)

What the heck, I'll tip you as well.

Thanks for more excellent news!


by candidate D on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 06:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks for good news, but a big BUT.... (2.00 / 1)

see my new diary, just posted, showing that we can only count on about  264 electoral votes, and if Obama doesn't win a state like CO, OH, IN, or VA, we can't get to 270.  The problem is that the margins are all very narrow, and they're all red states for many years (or decades), which makes the poll data less than bankable.

Could we win MS or Texas?  Sure, anything could happen, but rather than focus on those states, I think the big money and time and effort will have to go into CO and OH and VA.  That's where the election will be won.

The good news for us is that McCain has to defend a lot more territory than Obama has to defend, for example, working hard in FL because he HAS to win FL, and almost has to win NV, and MO, as well as having to win CO and VA and OH.  So McCain's got a bigger challenge, whereas Obama just needs to hold his current advantages and win one of these many states.


by enthusiast on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 09:34:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't tip me... (2.00 / 1)

we need this kind of diary a lot more then the scolding ones. more more more! :)

virtual tip o'the hat


by zerosumgame on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 08:22:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't tip me... (none / 0)

So go write some.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 07:38:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't tip me... (2.00 / 1)

when will you write something that is not total BS one of these days. SO you hate this diary, care to explain why exactly?


by zerosumgame on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 10:55:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't tip me... (none / 0)

You're right there.


by spirowasright on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 01:16:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't tip me... (none / 0)

Tipped!

Also giving a 50 to Obama and 50 to Clinton tonight.


by GenaMeana on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 11:17:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling number boon for Obama: Obama competiti (2.00 / 2)

 It sounds good alright, but I bet someone here can dash the giddiness by pointing out an area of concern that we are naively overlooking.......


by xdem on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 07:24:23 PM EST

Re: Polling number boon for Obama: Obama competiti (2.00 / 1)

just a tad bit defensive there ;P


by zerosumgame on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 08:23:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling number boon for Obama: Obama competiti (none / 0)

Er...um...Like Obama is never going to win MS in a million years?


by ottovbvs on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 09:06:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's fun to dream though (2.00 / 1)

One of my fondest wishes is to see an electoral map awash in blue this November.


Hillary is voting for Obama, so why aren't you?
by BrighidG on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 09:23:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling number (2.00 / 1)

I don't think he will.  I don't think he needs to.  Two points.

1) Former Governor Musgrave may well win Wicker's Senate seat.  If Obama makes a play for Mississippi it'll probably help Musgrave get it.
2) If it's under five points in the polls, McCain will have to either spend money there or pray it doesn't flip.  We don't need to beat him in most of the Southern states.  I'll gladly settle for making him defend that which the Republicans don't have the money to defend.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 11:42:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling number (2.00 / 1)

If McCain spends precious time and energy in MS, then his goose is cooked, it's all over.  He has to take MS for granted and focus his energy on states like FL, OH, VA, IN.


by enthusiast on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 02:01:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

...and money (2.00 / 1)

This is exactly the point of the 50 state strategy.

If Mississippi and Georgia are really in play this election is SO over.  The reverse is also true.  If California or New York are in play, McCain will be the next President.

How big is the map?  Which states are battleground states?  That is the issue.  My read (good today only) is that Obama is set up for a 1932 style win.


by smoker1 on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 02:55:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

1980 (1.00 / 1)


by conspiracy on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 05:48:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling number boon for Obama: Obama competiti (2.00 / 1)

He probably won't, but if McCain has to campaign in MS to a) defend himself or b) help the down ticked candidates then that in itself is a good thing for B. Hussein.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 07:40:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The last Rasmussen poll had the exact same margin (none / 0)

So we know that this isn't an outlier. Or more pessimistically, he doesn't seem to have gotten a post-Clinton bounce in the state


John McCain
by MILiberal on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 08:17:49 PM EST

Give it a little more time (2.00 / 2)

and the numbers will get even better. We're making history. We have to do it with deliberation.


by Jeter on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 09:01:47 PM EST

Obama can't win MS (2.00 / 1)

Voting in MS is very racially polarizing. Yes, he is doing better among African Americans and they are voting in greater numbers, but whites are still the majority and they are generally against white democrats, let alone a black one.


by Jaxx Raxor on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 11:54:31 PM EST

Re: Obama can't win MS (2.00 / 1)

I totally agree, but its fun to imagine how pissed his McCain's campaign has to be right now.  If these numbers hold up they will start arguing about where he should campaign and that is the kind of disorganization I want in the Republican camp.  Toward the end of the 2004 election I felt like Bush had Kerry running around like a wild man with no real plan in place.

Also, imagine how freaked out we would all be right now if McCain was within 4 or 5 in California right now.  You just know a lot of people would be claiming that he had to start campaigning and running ads there now.


by Xris on Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 11:58:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama can't win MS (2.00 / 2)

From Wikipedia:

Mississippi is 37% black and 62% white.

Assuming equal turnout, Obama picks up 90% of the black population, he only needs to pick up about 25% of the white population.  This doesn't sound completely unreasonable to me (but I'm not super familiar with the South).

If the black population is highly motivated and turns out in historic numbers, while the Republican base is relatively unmotivated, then the numbers look even better.


by Can I Haz Moar Snark on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 01:52:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama can't win MS (2.00 / 1)

Yuppers!

And Obama is already actively, and quietly working on an intensive registration & GOTV drive in the southern, heavily black states.  The feeling is that there is a large voter pool that has never been tapped.  If this works the pressure on the repubs to expand & turn out their base increases.

The problem being that the repubs don't have much room to grow in those states.  


by candidate D on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 07:16:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama can't win MS (2.00 / 1)

Local downticket white Democrats will win a bigger proportion of the white vote then Obama. Then add in the historically high numbers of African-Americans and young voters that Obama draws to the polls and even if Obama loses downticket Democrats win.


by hankg on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:09:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling number boon for Obama: Obama competiti (none / 0)

I'm in NJ - I can only tell you that my local paper (as in these two counties which is quite a spread) has had a front page practically everyday about how NJ is in play for McCain...

I will never EVER vote for McCain but I think I know alot of people who will be & right now the Dem. leadership in NJ is extraordinarily unpopular; hated even.


by jrsygrl on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:56:19 AM EST

Re: Ruthless Change in Mississippi (none / 0)

Mississippi stands on the edge of a profound shift in its electorate.

To see how, look at the CNN Exit Polls from '04. http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pag es/results/states/MS/P/00/epolls.0.html

John Kerry won by 63% to 37% landslide in Mississippi -- if you look only at voters under age 30.

We got crushed among voters 65 and older.

That George Wallace generation believed in "Segregation Forever!" They wanted to vote for another Dixiecrat like Strom Thurmond, or a Ronald Reagan fresh from an appearance dishonoring and undermining the heritage of the Civil Rights Movement.

George W Bush was exactly what the old racists were looking for and he got 75% of their vote. Kerry got only 25%, and we can figure that they were almost all black.

But the ongoing demographic change is ruthless. The Grim Reaper takes away the most racist voters, that Dixiecrat cohort, at a rapid rate. Almost 2% of all those who voted in 2004 die each year, and naturally enough they are heavily from the group that voted for Bush 3 to 1.

Voters who came of age after the searing struggle over desegregation was finished have a different view of the world. Kerry took the under 30 voters almost 2 to 1. Some of those are now in the 30-44 cohort, where Kerry already was able to get a fairly respectable 42%. Combining the two segments, Kerry trailed by only 1% among Mississippi voters under age 45.

And kids who were 16 or so when Kerry was our candidate will be part of the 18-29 cohort in this election. If anything they will be even more Democratic than their older sisters and brothers (my hunch, no link to data ;-) ).

So Democrats gain strength in the age groups where we lead or tie. Racist Repubs (redundant in this instance) die off at about three times the rate of Democrats. The South moves inexorably toward racial moderation and Mississippi moves toward swing state status.

Karl Rove and his ilk understand their predicament. For over 100 years, it was a winning tactic in Southern elections to portray your opponent as "a ni@@er lover"-- Willie Horton, anyone? -- but the old Hate Potion Number Nine wasn't working so well any more. They tried to find new ni@@ers using gays, illegal immigrants, Moslems, secularists, abortionists instead. They need a new target for hate because we're very close to the tipping point where overtly racist voters aren't enough to make the difference any more, not even in Mississippi.

It's fitting that this profound change in the Southern electorate arrives at the same time our party has nominated a proud black man to lead our country. A sorry chapter in history is coming to an end.


by Woody on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 12:00:21 PM EST

Re: Polling number boon for Obama (none / 0)

I'm still hoping McCain decides he can win NJ and spends some money there.  


Saxby Chambliss
by bosdcla14 on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 12:56:10 PM EST

Bobby Jindal will bring NJ back for McCain (none / 0)

LOL!!!!!!


by Bush Bites on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 06:02:37 PM EST


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